Where systematic trend-followers are positioned β and what every scenario forces them to do next. Recomputed live on every price tick across equities, rates, commodities and FX.
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For informational purposes only. The data and visualizations on this page do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Systematic trend-followers move enormous size on rules, not opinions. When they crowd into the same position, the most useful thing to know is the asymmetry: if they're maxed long, the next week of price action can mostly produce selling β regardless of whether the market rises, falls, or goes nowhere. This monitor models that positioning across global equities, rates, commodities and FX in real time, and flags the moment a market becomes a forced seller (or buyer) in every scenario.
For each market we measure how stretched the live price is above or below its 2-, 6- and 12-month averages, normalized by volatility, then map it to a position from β100% (max short) to +100% (max long). The response is smooth mid-range but rails at the limit β a strong trend pins the book at max, where it cannot add and can only be trimmed. That's what creates forced one-way flow.
The position is scaled inversely to realized volatility β a calmer market gets more size, a wilder one gets trimmed β mirroring how real CTAs run a constant risk budget. Volatility comes from an exponentially-weighted recursion over daily returns, updated with the live price.
We shock each market from down 2Ο to up 2Ο over the next week and month, recompute the target position (including the vol spike a selloff causes), and the change is the projected flow. Selling on weakness with no scenario left to buy = forced seller.
Every $ figure is one formula: position Γ (AUM Γ vol target Γ class share Γ market weight) Γ· volatility. The calibration is fixed and printed here β nothing is fit to match anyone's numbers: industry trend-following AUM β $340bn, vol target 12%, risk split 30% equities / 30% rates / 22% commodities / 18% FX, with each class's budget spread over its markets by liquidity weight (the S&P 500 carries 40% of the equity sleeve). The FX aggregate is expressed as net US-dollar exposure so euro, yen and DXY positions add up coherently.
