Hertz short bets surge 🐻, Nvidia faces China fallout 🇨🇳, Trump's Iran strategy warning 🗡

DB: Memory is a broken market, even if it has come off its highs… expect all your consumer electronics prices to soar

Cboe’s dispersion index is also near record highs @augurinfinity https://augurdigest.com/p/augur-digest-276

"My way of calculating the demand for money: it's the ratio of the M2 money supply to GDP. It hasn't changed much in the past few years, and is only marginally above pre-COVID levels." @sfgrannis

Recent hedge fund positioning via GS prime data, as HF’s continue to get shaken out of crowded AI positions..

CEO of Samsung, Kim: “This year’s profit alone will exceed the cumulative profit generated over the 40 years since Samsung entered the semiconductor business.”

The gap between forward and trailing earnings for the S&P 500 hits highest level in history 🚨 🚨

World's 30 Most Profitable Publicly Traded Companies 🚨🚨 - Alphabet $GOOGL Wins 🏆

Foreign investors dump Japanese bonds at fastest pace since 2023

Token spending index rolling over again, down to 2.5 month low

Another triangulation that the informal is experiencing much weaker job conditions than the payrolls numbers would suggest.

So why do I think Mag 7 leads again after lagging most of the first half? Valuation is the first reason. The Mag 7 P/E premium versus the rest of the S&P 500 just fell to its lowest level in more than a decade.

The US blockade of Iran was very successful. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz slowed exports from a place like the Philippines to countries in the Gulf (blue), but Philippine exports to Iran went to zero (black)! That's the huge hit from the blockade... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/iran-didnt-win-the-war

JUST IN: Nvidia officially launches program to let AI startups swap compute for revenue share

Thank heavens such demographic dilemmas are confined to other developed nations! This could never happen here @m3_melody RIGHT? “Japan's shrinking population has left 14% of its housing stock vacant, a share that’s risen for decades & shows no sign of reversing.” @apolloglobal

Having to charge $1-2 per one million token (one token = one word) to have a ROIC for AI models. We will have to see… The key question is who will captures the value created by AI? There are four possibilities: 1. The infrastructure providers. Nvidia and the hyperscalers

"With more than 40% of Russell 2000 companies unprofitable, a higher-for-longer rate environment drives up debt servicing costs, threatening middle-market firms as interest costs take up a growing share of earnings" -Apollo Slok

It's much worse than that, though. The US has big absolute wealth gaps. But adjusted for inflation since 2020, average wealth has risen while median wealth has plunged (each line is 10%). This is happening all over Europe and the Americas. It's a recipe for populist revolt.

Surprising (not really) stat from the new UBS Global Wealth Report 2026. The US ranks #2 when you look at average (mean) wealth per adult, but drops to #28 when you look at the median. https://www.ubs.com/content/dam/assets/wm/static/gwr/global-wealth-report-en-2026.pdf

JPMORGAN: BUY THE CHIP STOCK DIP JPMorgan says the recent pullback in semiconductor stocks is a buying opportunity, arguing the AI-driven chip cycle remains strong and meaningful new supply is unlikely before 2028. The bank favors semiconductors over hyperscalers, expects global stocks to reach new highs in the second half of 2026, and sees market gains broadening beyond AI.

this chart is a good reminder that the startup with the best distribution often wins

From @business: There were four times as many new heat records set from 2016 to 2024 as there would have been without climate change. Meanwhile, record cold temperatures are half as common

"Expectations for second-quarter earnings are high after companies comfortably beat analyst expectations in the first quarter." -Goldman Sachs

"Bringing the American Dream back into reach will be essential to powering the next 250 years of American prosperity" -JPMorgan

"Our proxy for the data center buildout trade dropped over 5% in the last two sessions." @bespokeinvest

Treasurys were solid investments until about 1945 @soberlook https://thedailyshot.com/subscribe/

EM EPS growth forecasts finally cooling off GS

Amazing

Rater hike estimates are falling fast as inflationary pressures ease. via Bloomberg

🇺🇸 One dollar invested in US equities at the start of 1800 would’ve grown to nearly $67 million, compounding at an annualized return of 8.3%. After inflation, the terminal value becomes $2 million for an annualized return of 6.6%.

While US index concentration is elevated relative to its history, it is not as extreme as in other countries.

John Authers: A trade of shorting MSCI's China index and putting money in the rest of EM would have made a profit of more than 60% in the first half.

📌 Insiders Corporate insiders are growing more cautious as the Insider Transactions Ratio slips back into bearish territory, with little appetite to step in and buy 👉 https://www.isabelnet.com/blog/ #insider $ndx $spx #spx #stocks #equity

📌 Financials Positioning in financials has improved, but it still sits at the 10th percentile, leaving ample room to add risk. With fundamentals holding up, that caution looks misplaced 👉 https://www.isabelnet.com/blog/ @DeutscheBank #financials $spx #spx #stocks #equity

"No one has ever been a success betting against America since 1776 — and they're not going to be a success in the future doing it, either." – Warren Buffett

Europe's fertility rates

🇺🇸 Capex 2027 capex is still a moving target for hyperscalers. They look more likely to overshoot than undershoot on AI spending, which could keep AI-driven inflation stickier for longer 👉 https://www.isabelnet.com/blog/ @GoldmanSachs #AI #capex $spx #spx #tech #stocks #equity

Following the exodus of Japanese tankers, there are very few stranded tankers left.

The dollar remains the dominant reserve currency, with the Euro only holding about 20% of the balance.

U.S. is now outspending China on fossil fuel generation for the first time in decades 🚨 🚨

UAE CRUDE PRODUCTION JUMPS ABOVE 3.8 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY IN JUNE, SECOND-HIGHEST ON RECORD, TWO SOURCES FAMILIAR WITH DATA SAY

Saudi Arabia slashes the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light, pricing the barrels for Asia delivery at **minus** $1.5 a barrel to the Dubai benchmark. It's the largest **discount** for Arab Light to Asia since mid-2020, when the world was still battling Covid-19.

The reason I pushed back so hard on $200 oil is because these kind of apocalyptic forecasts are fear-mongering, intended to keep the West from aggressively using economic warfare and things like the blockade. We've learned we can be much more aggressive... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/requiem-for-200-oil

Seven OPEC+ countries agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 188,000 barrels per day in August, the group said, marking the fifth consecutive increase since February 28.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 White House says the US government is working to "structure" its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and crypto stockpile.

Michael Saylor's "Strategy" has plunged -75% over the past year

Bitcoin ETFs bled -$4.1 billion in June, the largest monthly outflow in history

JUST IN: Michael Saylor's “Strategy” sells $225M worth of Bitcoin