Nvidia enters PC market 💻, Russia jet fuel ban 🌍, Bitcoin ETF outflows 📉

AI is being used more than ever. Paid token volume has roughly tripled in 5 months following the rise of agentic AI.

It isn't just about higher oil or tariffs, inflation is up for various components. @sonusvarghese has been noting all year that inflation was broadening out and it continued again. 53% of the components in core PCE above 3% vs 41% a year ago 39% above 4% vs 25% a yr ago

"Less than 20% of GDP drives 100% of recessions. Three components: Residential investment. Durable goods consumption. Business equipment investment. Today, only residential is contracting. One of three. Not enough to break the cycle." @EPBResearch

Profit margins in #Mining are insane. @TaviCosta hits generalist AUM over the head with this thumping chart.

In my opinion, this is the most compelling chart for being a stock market investor. Over the last 50 years: -US Inflation: up 6x -US Treasury Bills: up 8x -S&P 500 total return: up 271x Over the long run, stocks trounce inflation and protect your purchasing power.

For some reason I’m less enthusiastic about this than I think I should be.

The European Union is considering a temporary freeze to its price cap on Russian oil as the war in the Middle East continues into a fourth month. The current price threshold is $44.10 per barrel. Bloomberg. In April 2026, Russia’s fossil fuel export revenues rose 4%

📦 Global air cargo demand rose 4.0% YoY in April despite significant disruptions to international air networks, according to the IATA, supported by resilient Asian trade flows and tighter freight capacity. Industry-wide cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs) increased 4.0% YoY, while international cargo traffic also rose 4.0%. Asia-Pacific carriers led growth, with international cargo volumes surging 11.3% YoY as regional trade activity remained robust. In contrast, Middle Eastern carriers saw international cargo traffic plunge 18.2% YoY as airspace restrictions and conflict-related disruptions weighed heavily on operations.

China is seeing massive capital outflows: An estimated $1 trillion in capital flowed out of China in 2025, the largest annual outflow since records began in 2006. Capital outflows have more than DOUBLED since 2021. This comes as Chinese investors have moved funds into overseas equities through offshore brokers, particularly into the US and Hong Kong markets. In response, China imposed restrictions on cross-border stock trading on May 22nd, ordering all illegal accounts to be liquidated within 2 years. Furthermore, the country fined three offshore online brokers, Hong Kong-based Futu, Singapore-based Tiger Brokers and Longbridge Securities, a combined $330 million for offering Chinese investors access to foreign stock markets without regulatory approval. China is tightening capital controls as outflows intensify.

China's shrinking appetite for oil is balancing global crude markets: China's crude oil imports are tracking at ~6.6 million barrels per day so far in May, the lowest since 2016/ This comes as oil inbound shipments fell -20% MoM in April, to 9.37 million barrels per day, the lowest since July 2022. This compares to 11.6 million barrels per day in 2025, when the country was aggressively stockpiling to bolster energy security. China’s crude oil imports are now expected to average 10.9 million barrels per day in 2026, the lowest average for any year since 2022. However, China's oil inventories have declined by only ~20 million barrels over the last several weeks, to ~1.23 billion barrels, still +15% above early 2025 levels. Over the prior 2 years, the country’s stockpiling absorbed much of the world's surplus oil and helped support global prices, but this dynamic has now reversed and is capping any further upside. China is effectively putting a ceiling on oil price gains despite severe supply shortages.

🇯🇵 Japanese crude oil reserves post the largest drawdown in the country’s history

After a big sentiment reset, copper miners may be ready for another leg higher

$ETH - a correction in the KOSPI will help Korean retail just told you everything. ETH kimchi premium has collapsed to zero while KOSPI is up 8% in a week. Same capital, different asset. When Seoul's stock market stalls - and a single-week +8% index move rarely sustains - watch that premium reflate fast. Korean altcoin flows are the canary. Right now the canary is in the equity market.