📅 Economic Releases
| Time (ET) | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 8:30 AM | Durable Goods Orders m/m | Low |
| 8:30 AM | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m | Low |
📊 Earnings Today
📈 Premarket Gainers & Losers
🎯 Gamma Flip Point — $SPX (S&P 500 Index)
$SPX gamma flip point is 7418.41 |
🔥 Hot Market News
| President Trump's Newly Announced Tariffs Target 60 Economies President Trump announced new tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on goods from 60 economies, replacing Section 122 levies. These tariffs, enacted under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, aim to combat forced labor by imposing higher levies on countries that do not effectively prohibit the practice.
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| Meta, Microsoft Face Renewed Unease Over AI Spending: US Earnings Week Ahead Investors are expressing concerns over the increasing expenditure on artificial intelligence by tech giants like Meta and Microsoft as the US earnings report period approaches.
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| Profits Are Beating a High Bar and Traders Still Aren’t Enthused Despite 85% of S&P 500 companies beating profit estimates, stocks are not outperforming the benchmark, as investors worry about AI spending and economic growth. Tensions between the US and Iran have also driven oil prices higher, adding to inflation concerns.
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| Momentum Crash Hits YOLO Traders’ Returns by Most in Four Years Retail traders are facing significant losses as a basket of 50 stocks favored by amateur investors is experiencing its worst month since 2022, with some losing over a quarter of their value since June. The decline in retail trading activity is driven by uncertainties in AI investments, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about interest rates, causing broad withdrawals from technology-focused exchange-traded funds.
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| Big Tech debt flood is taking over risk in market Big Tech companies like Alphabet and Meta are significantly impacting the US corporate bond market with AI-related borrowing, accounting for a larger portion of the duration times spread (DTS) than major banks. As these companies issue more long-dated bonds to fund AI initiatives, concerns are rising about market concentration and credit risk amid skepticism over the returns on AI investments. This shift is leading to wider bond spreads and increased investor caution.
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| SpaceX at $100 Would Imply Zero AI Value, Morgan Stanley Says SpaceX shares have fallen significantly since their record $86 billion IPO, with the stock currently trading at 18% below its IPO price, as investors assign little to no value to its AI segment. Despite this decline, analysts, including Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, maintain a bullish outlook with a price target of $300, heavily influenced by the AI business potential.
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💱 Forex & Commodities
| China Rushes to Secure Russian Oil as Middle East Supply Risks Escalate Chinese refiners have purchased all crude oil cargoes from Russia’s Kozmino port scheduled for August, weeks earlier than usual, amid increased Middle Eastern supply risks due to attacks on tankers in the Red Sea and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The rush to secure Russian crude has driven up the price of the ESPO blend close to Brent crude prices.
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| India State Refiners Hunt for Crude as Middle East Flows Choked The collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire has reignited regional conflict, impacting tanker flows from the Persian Gulf and prompting Indian refiners to seek alternative oil sources from Venezuela and Angola. Increased attacks by Houthi militants on Saudi vessels have raised oil prices, with Brent crude exceeding $100 a barrel, while forcing refiners to reconsider transportation routes and oil supply strategies.
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| Europe Faces Winter Gas Reckoning as Global Fight for LNG Brews Europe faces potential energy shortages and high costs for the winter as conflict in the Middle East disrupts key LNG supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Asian countries are aggressively purchasing LNG, exacerbating Europe's supply challenges and causing a spike in prices, which could lead to economic repercussions across the continent.
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| Wheat Extends July Rally as War Risks Stoke Fears Over Supply Wheat prices have surged due to escalating geopolitical tensions, including Russian shipping restrictions and attacks in the Middle East, coupled with adverse weather in major producing regions like the US, France, and Germany, leading to supply concerns. The grain's prices are up by 19% this month, with production in the European Union projected to fall significantly, while Bloomberg's Agriculture Spot Index has reached its highest level since July 2023.
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| Yen’s worst week since May brings it close to ¥165 vs. dollar The yen is nearing the key ¥165-per-dollar mark after reaching a 40-year low of ¥163.99, and is headed for its largest weekly loss in over two months despite intervention warnings. This decline comes amid rising dollar value due to escalating Middle East tensions and possible Federal Reserve rate hikes.
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| Dollar Set for Best Week in a Month as Haven Flows Offer Support The dollar is experiencing its strongest performance in a month, driven by heightened Middle East tensions and new US tariff measures, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid uncertainty over Federal Reserve rate decisions.
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🪙 Crypto News / Prediction Markets / AI
| Kalshi Considers Launching Perpetual Copper Futures Amid AI-Driven Demand Kalshi Inc. plans to introduce perpetual copper futures to give investors a new means to invest in copper as demand increases from the AI sector, despite not yet having regulatory approval.
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| Trump’s Crypto Bonanza is Biggest Hurdle for Digital Asset Bill Donald Trump's substantial earnings from the crypto industry have stalled the passing of his proposed digital-asset legislation, with Democrats pushing for stricter regulations to prevent conflicts of interest. Despite efforts from Senate Republicans to propose a compromise, the Clarity Act is unlikely to pass before the August recess due to ethical concerns and disagreements over its current provisions.
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| Brazilian Farmers Are Tokenizing Cows to Get Farm Loans—And It's Working In Paraná, Brazil, ten cows from Fazenda Engenho Velho were tokenized with AI-powered collars and registered as collateral on Brazil's stock exchange, B3, using blockchain technology. This innovative approach allows farmers to secure rural credit certificates by digitizing livestock into financial securities, addressing issues of credit access amidst increasing agribusiness bankruptcies.
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| Bitcoin options cluster $5B at $70K-$72K strikes signals strong bullish bets on Deribit. Bitcoin options on Deribit highlight a strong market focus at the $70,000 and $72,000 call strikes, with $5 billion in open interest, despite tempered expectations due to recent Senate comments. This segment comprises 18% of the total $28 billion BTC options open interest, signaling significant bullish sentiment, although some traders are scaling back positions.
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