UAE oil exports surge 🚢, Hedge funds cut AI 📉, Dollar hits 13-month high 📈

Taiwan Stock Market Margin Loans soar to same level as the peak of the Dot Com Bubble 🚨🚨🚨

The Fed expanded the money supply by over $9 trillion under Jerome Powell. Inflation has averaged >4% per year over the past 6 years. Powell's explanation? It was nearly all due to rolling “supply shocks" over which the Fed has no control. The truth: this inflation was made in Washington as it always is - from too much government borrowing/spending and too much government creation of money.

US leveraged ETFs are growing at a record pace: Assets under management (AUM) in the 3x Leveraged Long Nasdaq 100 ETF, $TQQQ, are up to ~$40 billion, near an all-time high. At the same time, AUM in the 3x Leveraged Long Semiconductor ETF, $SOXL, are up to a record $34 billion. Since April, assets in $SOXL have more than TRIPLED, while assets in $TQQQ have nearly DOUBLED. By comparison, AUM in the 2x Leveraged Long Nasdaq 100 ETF, $QLD, has grown +$7 billion, or +88% over the same period, to near a record ~$15 billion. As a result, total US leveraged ETF AUM is up to a record $198 billion, up +55% during the same time period. Investor leverage is at record highs.

🇺🇸 S&P 500 Speculators have turned increasingly bearish on US equities. When net short positioning reaches these kinds of extremes, it has often set the stage for sharp short squeezes, a classic contrarian bullish signal 👉 https://www.isabelnet.com/?s=S%26P+500 h/t @dailychartbook $spx #spx

Semiconductor stocks have more than doubled so far this year while the Magnificent 7 group is down 3%. Old Wall Street warning: “They’re shooting the generals.” Translation: the former market leaders are starting to break. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8IogGQScss&t=674s

Interesting price action today, resembling dot-com and GFC. Technology sector XLK fell over 4%, while Financials XLF, the second largest sector in S&P 500, finished positive. This type of divergence was only seen during the 2000 dot-com and in the aftermath of the 2008 GFC

Let’s talk numbers, not narratives. 🇨🇳’s global goods surplus in 2025 was 8× larger than 🇪🇺’s. In Q1 2026, it was already 20× larger. 🇨🇳’s goods surplus with 🇪🇺 in 2025 was roughly 16× larger than 🇪🇺’s services surplus with 🇨🇳. Facts matter.

Hyperscaler free cashflow projections via Charlie McElligott at Nomura:

17% of companies are in a Buyback Blackout window, which is set to accelerate over the next several weeks. This removes a key source of supportive corporate demand from the market.

Not Many Bright Spots Beyond the AI Boom Recent hard data from China and the US suggests subdued real activity outside of the AI / Semis boom, which suggests it’s not strong enough to energize the core of either economy at this point. https://bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/not-many-bright-spots-beyond-the

JUST IN 🚨: Stock Market approaching Extreme Fear 👻😱🫂

Despite a slight uptick in most recent week, large speculators remain net short S&P 500 futures

SoftBank Group founder Masayoshi Son said there’s little merit to building data centers in space

Investors are worried that tech companies are bumping up against what they can charge customers to use their most advanced large language models, reducing potential profits. Hyperscaler stocks have directly tracked token prices of late, via @DRBCurtis @BloombergTV

🇩🇪 While eurozone activity showed signs of stabilizing in June, Germany remained a major weak spot as private sector activity fell to its lowest level in over a year. The S&P Flash Composite PMI fell to 48.0 from 48.8, a 14-month low and the third consecutive month of contraction.

"Since the market lows in March, momentum stocks have pulled meaningfully ahead of quality stocks. Before that, both factors had largely moved together" -JPMorgan

🇬🇧 UK private sector activity contracted for a second straight month in June, with the Composite PMI falling to a 14-month low of 49.4. Services activity weakened to its lowest level in over three years, while manufacturing output surged to a 21-month high as firms continued to benefit from inventory stockpiling.

Gold miners are trading at one of the deepest discounts to the S&P 500 on record. Fundamentals remain strong. Prices keep falling. This is what an accumulation phase looks like to smart money. https://tavicosta.substack.com/p/macro-update-32d

The Strait of Hormuz may be reopening, but tanker markets remain in crisis mode. Daily tanker rates have nearly doubled to over $190,000, while some VLCCs are reportedly earning up to $470,000 per day as vessel shortages persist. #Oil #Tankers #Hormuz #Shipping https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Tanker-Owners-Are-Having-the-Best-Week-of-the-Hormuz-Crisis.html

Oil, commodities, and freight charges are falling fast. Oil is now below early March levels. Gasoline prices are now $3.3/gallon in many states. In California, insane taxation leaves gasoline at $5.5/gallon. Disinflation is real. https://gasprices.aaa.com/

Traffic at the Strait of Hormuz is picking up. 🧵

Commodity trade getting hit hard as dollar rips higher... 1H26 has been interesting. $DXY

Beef is fast becoming the new marker of affordability for consumers.

Yen back above 161. Another example of how intervention in large developed exchange rates doesn't work without a change in underlying fundamental dynamics. And that any intervention that comes is best faded vs followed. https://x.com/BobEUnlimited/status/2057043729995755552?s=20

Hormuz. Outbound vessel count for 22 June is at 20 tankers vs. previous daily count below 10 and pre-war average of 35.

Goldman: Outright shorts in Brent crude reached a new record last week. (Via ZeroHedge)

We are seeing historic growth in tokenized stock trading volumes: Across all chains, monthly tokenized stock trading volume hit a record $5.3 billion last month, up 44% MoM. On Solana, total transfer volume of tokenized stocks is now officially above $10 billion for the first time in history. Over the last month alone, tokenized equity volumes have surged +180% on Solana, driven primarily by growing demand for tokenized RWA products which can be traded 24/7. On Jupiter, the most popular venue for trading these assets, 33% of tokenized asset traders are now trading over the weekend. Tokenization has created 24/7 markets.

DB: Flows into crypto funds have been negative since the start of May.

JUST IN: Binance says on-chain tokenized assets have grown 589% to $31 billion since 2025.