📅 Economic Releases
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| 10:00 AM | CB Consumer Confidence | Medium |
📊 Earnings Today
📈 Premarket Gainers & Losers
🎯 Gamma Flip Point — $SPX (S&P 500 Index)
$SPX gamma flip point is 7425.26 |
🔥 Hot Market News
| Chipmakers Selloff Offsets Decline in Oil Prices Amid AI Spending Pressure A selloff in semiconductor stocks led by a 2.2% drop in chipmaker giants, offset a decline in oil prices, as Nvidia's debt protection costs surged and ASML Holding faced competition from Chinese firms. Meanwhile, President Trump reported US-Iran diplomatic talks, with potential oil market implications, as the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision looms.
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| Trump says Iran war talks taking place during lull in strikes President Trump expressed optimism about resolving the conflict with Iran, as negotiations continue and mutual military strikes halt for three days. He warned that the US would resume military action if talks fail, while also denying media reports of depleted US ammunition stockpiles.
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| Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Says AI Adoption Key to Profit Outlook Morgan Stanley strategists expect US companies that integrate AI capabilities, such as Halliburton and Bank of America, to see stronger profit margins, with net-margin expansion projected through 2027. The analysis highlights AI adoption's increasing enterprise value, particularly benefiting sectors like transports and professional services.
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| Nvidia’s $750 Billion Deals Revive Fear of AI Circular Financing Nvidia Corp. is planning new AI infrastructure deals potentially exceeding $750 billion, including a $500 billion agreement with SK Hynix and a $250 billion guarantee for OpenAI's computing leases. Despite concerns about circular financing and inflated demand, Nvidia's investments continue to fuel growth while exposing the industry to potential systemic risks.
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| Citi traders are betting Fed will keep rates on hold this week Citigroup's traders are betting with high conviction that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, despite swap markets assigning nearly a 40% chance of a rate hike this week. This comes amid heightened market volatility due to Middle East tensions and differing views from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, who opposes forward guidance, adding to the uncertainty.
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| ASML Shares Fall 6.5% After Report of Chinese Company Mass-Producing DUV Tools ASML's stock dropped by 6.5% after a report emerged that a Shanghai company has started mass-producing DUV lithography tools, bypassing Dutch and US export controls. ASML's sales to China fell as internal capabilities developed, reflecting a potential shift in China’s chip-making independence.
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| JPMorgan Sees S&P 500 Poised to Rally as New Buy Signal Flashes JPMorgan's market intelligence team has issued a buy signal for the S&P 500, citing falling bond yields, a weakening US dollar, and strong corporate earnings as key reasons for potential upside in US equities. However, risks such as geopolitical tensions and crowded positions in semiconductor stocks could challenge this bullish outlook.
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💱 Forex & Commodities
| Corn and soybeans fall on U.S. weather, pause in U.S.-Iran Strikes Corn and soybean futures saw significant declines due to improving weather forecasts in the U.S. Midwest and a halt in U.S. strikes against Iran, which also led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices. This downturn in futures is linked to better weather models for crop health and easing geopolitical tensions.
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| Gold Rises as US-Iran Tensions Ease, Impacting Oil and Inflation Concerns Gold prices increased by as much as 1.6% due to a pause in US-Iran tensions that reduced oil supply risks and inflation concerns, easing potential tightening of monetary policy. After trading near $4,000 an ounce, gold's future growth is constrained by the need for a meaningful resolution between the US and Iran.
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| Kiwi Will Outpace Euro on Widening Rate Gap, Strategists Say The New Zealand dollar is expected to strengthen to its highest point in more than a year against the euro, driven by forecasts that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will raise interest rates more aggressively than the European Central Bank. The kiwi could climb 3.2% against the euro over the next three months, with New Zealand's economic indicators supporting further rate hikes, while the euro faces potential declines due to eurozone economic growth concerns.
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| Macquarie Sees Oil Glut Risk on US-Iran Deal Before Midterms Macquarie analysts warn of a potential oil market oversupply if a US-Iran deal is reached, which may lead to an increase in Iranian oil supply and result in lower Brent crude prices, anticipated at $77 per barrel in 2026 and $64 in 2027.
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🪙 Crypto News / Prediction Markets / AI
| Inside China’s trillion-dollar bet to wire its economy for an AI era China is undertaking a major infrastructure initiative called 'Six Networks' as part of its Five-Year Plan to enhance competitiveness in AI, focusing on digital and physical systems including electricity, telecommunications, and logistics. The plan, set for completion by 2030 with an estimated cost exceeding 26 trillion yuan, aims to improve infrastructure for AI, support renewable energy, and bolster resilience to geopolitical and environmental challenges.
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| Firms pivot to AI as cryptocurrency treasury stocks collapse Large public companies are selling off Bitcoin holdings, with Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, selling 3,620 BTC while still holding over 840,000 BTC. Smaller firms like Satsuma Technology and Sequans Communications are fully or mostly liquidating their Bitcoin to repay debts, triggering repercussions such as delisting and failed mergers, and many are pivoting to AI infrastructure as an alternative investment.
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| Bitcoin ETFs End Inflow Streak as Fed Rate Concerns Mount US-listed Bitcoin ETFs experienced over $465 million in outflows on July 23-24, breaking a seven-session inflow streak, as fears of potential Federal Reserve interest rate hikes overshadowed optimism over the US Clarity Act. Despite the sell-off, Bitcoin climbed above $65,000 following eased tensions between the US and Iran, though market sentiment remains fragile due to macroeconomic uncertainties.
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| Nvidia And OpenAI In Talks For $500 Billion Data Center In Ohio, Will Be World's Largest Nvidia and OpenAI are discussing a $500 billion project to build a 10-gigawatt data center in southern Ohio, potentially making it the world's largest by power capacity. The development, partially funded by Japan, involves Nvidia providing $250 billion to OpenAI, with additional costs for Nvidia's chips and leasing the site.
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| China’s Moonshot to Release Breakthrough AI Model for Download Moonshot AI, a Beijing-based company, plans to release its Kimi K3 model's weights, allowing developers worldwide to download and modify the model, which has already led to a significant rise in daily sales and competitive pressure on US AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic PBC. The release comes amid US allegations that Moonshot trained its AI model using banned Nvidia chips and engaged in distillation from competitor models.
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